Jumping the Football Shark
Having given up on my fantasy baseball team, as well as all interest in sports that involve raquets, clubs, and bicyces, I'm getting the urge to slip back into college football. And just when I have the urge to pretend people still read this, Gregg Doyel comes along to explain how expansion killed the ACC. Or at least the Maryland, N.C. State, and Virginia portions of the ACC. Ah, the hubris.
Except Virginia isn't faring all that worse under expansion. They've gone 8-8 in conference in the last two seasons, about the same as Al Groh's first three years of 3-5, 6-2 and 4-4. The only easy win their schedule's lost has been Wake, who they were barely squeaking by before expansion. (They've also seen less of Clemson and N.C. State. Oddly enough, Virginia was having better luck against Clemson than the Demon Deacons or the Wolfpack in the Al Groh era.)
N.C. State, despite the love Amato was getting from the Wolfpack, hadn't made it through a conference slate with less than three losses before the barbarians reached the gates. The post-expansion years haven't been pretty, going 3-5 in both seasons, but their wins over Florida State have hidden some bad losses. Sure, they've missed having Duke on their schedule, but excising the new ACC teams wouldn't even get them to 0.500 play. It's almost as if they lost a star quaterback the previous staff recruited right before expansion, and haven't been able to recover. Or something like that.
And Maryland, dear Maryland. The team showing the greates drop-off, after Friedgen's initial 19-5 conference start. And again where expansion happens to coincide with the classes he personally recruited. Of course, in that first expansion season, the only new face on the schedule was Virginia Tech, and they only saw the Hokies after Gerogia Tech, N.C. State, Clemson, and Virginia had already knocked them off. The Terps scored 195 points that season (after three 400+ years) and 100 of them were against the mighty defenses of Duke and Temple. They were bad before they ever saw Miami. Hell, they still haven't seen Miami.
A number of factors pushed these teams above the average from 2001-2003, including the revitalization a coaching change can bring (see Goldsmith, Fred). But its a short term fluctuation that can be dampened by other things - not only expansion, but UNC's resurgence[*], Georgia Tech's steady improvement and internal coaching decisions. Amato, Friedgen, and Groh's fates do not hinge on whether the ACC flew too close to the sun, they depend on their own skills and talents. And this year we'll see where those talents lay.
[*] Yes, resurgence. I know it sounds silly to "resurge" to six-loss seasons, but the Heels are 9-7 in conference, following back to back 1-7 performances. It makes a difference.
Except Virginia isn't faring all that worse under expansion. They've gone 8-8 in conference in the last two seasons, about the same as Al Groh's first three years of 3-5, 6-2 and 4-4. The only easy win their schedule's lost has been Wake, who they were barely squeaking by before expansion. (They've also seen less of Clemson and N.C. State. Oddly enough, Virginia was having better luck against Clemson than the Demon Deacons or the Wolfpack in the Al Groh era.)
N.C. State, despite the love Amato was getting from the Wolfpack, hadn't made it through a conference slate with less than three losses before the barbarians reached the gates. The post-expansion years haven't been pretty, going 3-5 in both seasons, but their wins over Florida State have hidden some bad losses. Sure, they've missed having Duke on their schedule, but excising the new ACC teams wouldn't even get them to 0.500 play. It's almost as if they lost a star quaterback the previous staff recruited right before expansion, and haven't been able to recover. Or something like that.
And Maryland, dear Maryland. The team showing the greates drop-off, after Friedgen's initial 19-5 conference start. And again where expansion happens to coincide with the classes he personally recruited. Of course, in that first expansion season, the only new face on the schedule was Virginia Tech, and they only saw the Hokies after Gerogia Tech, N.C. State, Clemson, and Virginia had already knocked them off. The Terps scored 195 points that season (after three 400+ years) and 100 of them were against the mighty defenses of Duke and Temple. They were bad before they ever saw Miami. Hell, they still haven't seen Miami.
A number of factors pushed these teams above the average from 2001-2003, including the revitalization a coaching change can bring (see Goldsmith, Fred). But its a short term fluctuation that can be dampened by other things - not only expansion, but UNC's resurgence[*], Georgia Tech's steady improvement and internal coaching decisions. Amato, Friedgen, and Groh's fates do not hinge on whether the ACC flew too close to the sun, they depend on their own skills and talents. And this year we'll see where those talents lay.
[*] Yes, resurgence. I know it sounds silly to "resurge" to six-loss seasons, but the Heels are 9-7 in conference, following back to back 1-7 performances. It makes a difference.
--T.H. Thursday, July 27, 2006
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